ICE Vehicles Peaked in 2017 — Here's Why That Matters Now
The IEA says ICE vehicles peaked in 2017. BYD's flooding global markets and legacy carmakers are cutting prices. What does this mean for your novated lease?
According to the IEA's latest Global EV Outlook — discussed in a recent episode of The Driven podcast ([Source 1]) — internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales hit their global peak back in 2017. We're already on the other side of it. That's not a prediction anymore; it's a retrospective.
At the same time, BYD is building its own dedicated export fleet to ship vehicles directly to markets like Australia, and legacy carmakers are responding with price cuts they may not be financially equipped to sustain. The EV transition isn't coming — it's already underway, and the pricing dynamics are shifting fast.
What this means for novated lease customers
If you're an Australian PAYG employee deciding between an EV and a petrol car on a novated lease right now, this market context matters. More EV supply from manufacturers like BYD, combined with pressure on legacy brands to cut prices, generally points toward more competitive vehicle pricing — which flows through to your lease cost.
On top of that, EVs under the current FBT exemption framework remain one of the most tax-effective ways to package a car through your salary. Increased model availability means more choice at different price points, which wasn't the case even 18 months ago.
The short version: the window where EVs were expensive and hard to get is closing. If you've been waiting for supply and pricing to improve before exploring a novated lease on an EV, the market is moving in your direction — but pricing floors don't last forever in a price war.
Common questions
Does 'peak ICE' mean I should avoid leasing a petrol car?
Not necessarily — a petrol car can still make sense depending on your driving patterns, budget, and employer setup. But resale value risk on ICE vehicles is a real consideration over a 3-5 year lease term as EV adoption accelerates.
Are BYD vehicles eligible for the EV FBT exemption in Australia?
BYD models that fall under the luxury car tax threshold and meet the eligible vehicle definition under the FBT exemption rules may qualify. Your specific model and price point need to be checked against current ATO criteria — we can confirm eligibility before you sign anything.
Will the EV FBT exemption still be available if I lease now?
The FBT exemption for eligible EVs is legislated and currently in effect. Policy can change, but novated leases locked in while the exemption applies should be assessed on current rules, not speculation about future changes.
How does a price war between carmakers affect my novated lease?
Lower vehicle purchase prices can reduce your overall lease cost and residual value calculations. It also means the market for EV choices at different price points is expanding, so you're not forced into a single model or brand.
Is millarX able to help with BYD or other newer EV brands?
Yes. millarX is ACL-licensed and AFCA-registered and works across a wide range of vehicle brands and models — we're not tied to any manufacturer, so we'll find what works for your situation.